AI and the Green Energy Stop and Go
A slightly off topic and random post, but it was in my head and now its not. I know a bit about Green Energy, having spent some time running a media business focused on this area.
Here is why. I rewind to 2006. I was running a tech event, and the head of the BBC’s iPlayer division said that the whole thing was untenable because no one was investing in the infrastructure. He meant internet capacity.
Fast forward to 2024, no one is making this statement. Why? Because Google, Facebook, Microsoft, et al., are laying undersea cables, sticking satellites into space to connect remote areas — why? Because that is how they will continue to grow.
The recent, albeit real, worry about the energy intensity of AI reminded me of that statement.
The green energy ‘revolution’ is, in fact, a turgid, stop-start, hit-and-miss evolution. What it needs is capital and, most importantly, policy and political influence — and not from energy companies, which are stuck in blinkered and unimaginative ecochambers.
The tech sector has the most capital, influence, and innovation at its core. So, if they have just backed some energy-guzzling tech, I say good.
If the economics don’t burst for AI — which they won’t on a long-term macro level — what do you think this sector will do when it needs more energy? It will pour trillions into Green Energy initiatives. Google already does this.
More importantly, though, I believe they will fund and support research and innovation on a larger scale than is currently being done.
Political leverage and clout
The energy sector, tarred with the fossil fuel brush, is still addicted to it, even as it tries to wean itself. Like any addict, it slips back, goes on the occasional bender, and then resets. Except in the context of energy companies, these ‘benders’ have long consequences.
So, the sector has an image and trust problem that tech companies do not have, yet (despite the efforts of some people) or better said, not regarding energy, yet, and they don’t want to lose that. If you look at PPA’s (Power Purchase Agreements) tech companies accounted for more than 68% of both tracked deals and associated contracted capacity. S&P Global Commodity Insights reports that 57.7 US tech corporations have contracted GW of renewable energy capacity to date (S&P Global)
While politicians — bar some exceptions — have a complicated dance with traditional energy companies, they keep least publicly, which also causes a problem, whereas tech companies are welcomed.
Tech companies are also global and operate in a much more cohesive way globally, which gives them a different level of influence and perspective. All this and some other nuances mean that if this sector properly gets behind Green Energy, it could be rocket fuel.
My other observation is that tech companies, by and large, still have a stream of social responsibility running through their DNA, and that, while it lasts, means they will back Green Energy at the expense of alternatives.
Let’s face it: It’s not like our politicians at a global scale are part of the solution. They can only think in two-year time spans or less. This sector thinks in decades, and that, too, is a good thing.
What is on the parking lot?
Sure, there are lots of things. Like a short-term energy crisis — but we will have that anyway. The public safety arguments around AI are very real. This technology’s intrinsic ability to create a seismic shock to the labour market — which it will.
The fundamental stupidity of generating 40 to 50 Midjourney images to get a prompt right, as well as the big question of how it will impact humanity — because, unlike other tech evolutions, it will have a bigger impact than any other.
But, but, but……. on all of these, the train has long left the station, hit escape velocity, crossed the chasm and come back around for a second go at it.
Maybe, just maybe, though, if we take a step back and trust. Trust that we will navigate issues in the parking lot and allow ourselves the thought experiment of imagining fifteen years hence.
This tech revolution could be powered entirely by green, renewable energy with lots to spare, which is a good outcome. It may even give us Fusion… which currently is not in the interest of energy sector incumbents and had its first-ever energy gain in 2022 and I am not sure where the funding status is.
One prompt first picture challenge
Just to finish off as a environmentally conciencious AI enthusiast, I am setting myself the ‘one prompt first picture challenge’ on Midjourney which I have been using in my blog post and will be going forward, join me.
As the famous add in the UK goes ‘Every little helps’